Africa’s Volatile Geopolitics: Regional Conflict Ahead? Part I.
Africa's geopolitical convulsions risk spreading regionally as global tensions rise. Part I of II.
The geopolitical temperature in Africa is rising, and raising the risk of region-wide contagion. At the same time, China and Russia continue to make diplomatic inroads and elbow out US influence against the backdrop of a tense international environment.
The Cradle of Civilization is being courted - and some might argue also coerced - to join exclusive spheres of influence. And it’s no wonder: Africa’s demographic trends, consumer base projections, and resources are nothing to brush off.
Having said that, the continent’s internal struggles with conflict, corruption, and underdeveloped institutional frameworks continue to dampen its future.
Case in point: Africa has the highest number of coups worldwide with the highest success rate overall. Furthermore, while the number of head-of-state-deposing attempts have declined, the success-to-failure ratio has increased.
You can read my more detailed report here.
Historically speaking, conflicts in Africa seldom remained confined to their borders. Rather, political spillovers often ignite regional flare-ups, intensify existing conflicts, and even create new ones.
When One Country Sneezes, Others Catch a Cold
The Rwandan Genocide and Its Impact on the Democratic Republic of Congo
The 1994 Rwandan Genocide led to a mass exodus of Hutu refugees - some linked to the genocidal regime - into eastern DRC, sparking a chain of instability.
These armed factions ignited the First Congo War (1996–1997) and later, the Second Congo War (1998–2003). The latter became a pan-African conflict, dragging in forces from Rwanda, Uganda, Angola, and Zimbabwe, making the region a hotspot for geopolitical friction.
The Libyan Civil War's Influence on the Sahel:
The 2011 collapse of Muammar Gaddafi’s regime turned Libya into a cauldron of chaos. This vacuum led to a surge in weapons and fighters across the Sahel, especially into Mali, where Tuareg insurgents—previously aligned with Gaddafi—returned with heavy arms.
This sparked Mali’s 2012 civil war and bolstered regional terror groups, including al-Qaeda and ISIS affiliates. The violence metastasized, destabilizing Niger, Burkina Faso, and beyond, illustrating how the breakdown of a single state can have profound reverberations across an entire region.
The Sudanese Civil Wars and the Spread to Chad and Central African Republic
Sudan’s civil conflicts—especially in Darfur—have left an indelible mark on its neighbors. As government-backed militias rampaged through Darfur, hundreds of thousands of refugees spilled into Chad, bringing with them violence and destabilization.
Sudanese militia raids sparked border clashes, pulling Chad into Sudan’s orbit of conflict. Simultaneously, the Central African Republic's fragile state was further undermined, creating a volatile triangle of instability where local conflicts became regional ones.
Al-Shabaab and the Horn of Africa
Emerging from Somalia’s post-civil war vacuum, Al-Shabaab has terrorized the Horn of Africa, particularly Kenya and Ethiopia. The group's cross-border raids, including the 2013 Westgate Mall attack, highlighted its ability to project power beyond Somalia’s borders.
Al-Shabaab’s operations have forced neighboring states, backed by African Union forces, into a persistent counterterrorism struggle. Somalia’s instability continues to be the linchpin for broader insecurity in the Horn, with Al-Shabaab adapting and spreading its influence across the region.
The Burundian Civil War's Effect on Rwanda and Tanzania
Burundi’s ethnic conflict (1993–2005) spilled over into neighboring Rwanda and Tanzania, both of which were already fragile post-genocide. Refugee flows overwhelmed these states, while armed groups operated across borders.
Rwanda and Tanzania found themselves managing not just humanitarian crises but also the security risks posed by cross-border militancy, further complicating an already precarious state of regional stability.
So, what’s happening in Africa now?
Sudan: Civil War
Sudan’s ongoing civil war, ignited in April 2023, is a violent power struggle between two key military leaders: General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
The conflict centers on competing visions for control over the military and the country's future governance, particularly the controversial integration of the RSF into the SAF.
This internal rivalry, deeply rooted in Sudan’s history of coups and fragmented security forces, has triggered widespread violence, exacerbating regional instability and creating a humanitarian disaster.
Since the war began last year, over 150,000 people have lost their lives, and more than 10 million have been displaced. The looming threat of mass starvation could claim even more lives, marking what may be the worst famine in 40 years.
However, the collapse of Sudan, positioned at the intersection of Africa and the Middle East, carries broader geopolitical risks. Its disintegration threatens regional stability, potentially toppling fragile regimes in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa.
The country could become a sanctuary for extremist groups, spark a wave of refugees toward Europe, and further destabilize the Red Sea, where Iranian-backed Houthi attacks have already disrupted critical global shipping routes.
The conflict is threatening the crucial oil pipeline that runs from South Sudan to the Red Sea, further destabilizing an already fractured petrostate. Ethiopia may see the chaos as an opportunity to assert control over long-disputed agricultural land near its border with Sudan.
The unrest could also reignite Ethiopia's internal strife, whether in the Tigray region or its ongoing tensions with Eritrea—both neighboring Sudan. Eritrea, for its part, is reportedly training Sudanese militias aligned with the SAF.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Iran has requested a naval base along Sudan’s coast. While the SAF claims it declined, desperation may push them to reconsider. Arms-smuggling between Yemen, Somalia, and Sudan is already rampant, and granting Iran a foothold would strengthen its network of regional proxies.
U.S. officials are growing concerned as reports suggest the Houthis and Somalia’s jihadist group, al-Shabab, are exploring collaboration. The situation would become even more troubling if Sudanese Islamist factions were to join in, further complicating the region's security landscape.
A Regional Magnet for Foreign Actors
The likelihood of major international players like China becoming more involved in Sudan’s conflict to protect their economic interests is possible. China has invested heavily in Sudan’s oil industry and infrastructure projects, especially as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
These investments, including oil pipelines, ports, and energy-related infrastructure, are vital for securing China’s resource needs and expanding its global influence.
Egypt also shares deep historical, political, and economic ties with Sudan. Any further destabilization threatens Egyptian water security, particularly through the Nile. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has already heightened tensions between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia.
If Sudan becomes a battleground for external actors or descends into further chaos, Cairo could step in to protect its strategic interests.
Beyond its border disputes with Sudan, the situation in Sudan could inflame internal Ethiopian conflicts, such as those in Tigray, Oromo, or the Amhara regions.
Turkey has been expanding its footprint in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea through investments and security cooperation. Turkey's interest in Sudan dates back to the Ottoman period, and it has maintained commercial ties, particularly in infrastructure development.
Russia has a growing interest in Sudan, especially in its mineral resources, including gold. Wagner Group has been involved in Sudan’s gold mining operations, using these assets to support Russian interests abroad, including funding its geopolitical campaigns.
The UAE’s involvement, particularly its backing of the RSF, is part of a wider strategy. Abu Dhabi aims to extend its influence across Africa by weakening political Islam, securing control over the Red Sea, and advancing commercial interests in agriculture, minerals, and logistics.
Emirati investments in Sudanese farmland and infrastructure underscore their ambition to secure food and resource access indefinitely, should their allies prevail in Khartoum.
As far as the conflict goes, there is no end in sight, and peace talks facilitated by countries like Saudi Arabia have failed to bear fruit.
Niger & Nigeria
The Nigerian military recently announced that it had formalized a new security agreement with Niger. This move comes despite tensions following Niger’s July 2023 coup, which ousted President Mohamed Bazoum and fractured the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
While the coup strained relations and raised concerns about regional efforts to combat Islamist insurgencies, the agreement marks a step toward renewed cooperation on shared security challenges.
However, ECOWAS has not ruled out the possibility of a military intervention in Niger, but it says it wants to pursue dialogue with the juntas. The African organization refrained from launching a military operation in Niger due to:
Internal divisions within the bloc made consensus difficult, with nations like Burkina Faso and Mali opposing intervention.
Diplomatic efforts, especially led by Algeria, aimed at a peaceful solution, further delayed decisive action.
Military intervention risked destabilizing the broader region.
The latter would potentially spark a wider conflict that could draw in neighboring states and ignite a protracted insurgency across the Sahel, undermining regional security even further. The situation at this time is cautiously stable.
However, the state of affairs in Ethiopia, Eritrea, Egypt, and Kenya remain volatile amid heightened concern of Russia and China’s growing influence. Next week’s publication will further detail these developments and what it means for Africa.
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