Beijing’s Summit Smile, Sea Snarl

I'm getting mixed signals...

Charms & Warships: Beijing’s Balancing Act

As President Trump unveiled a new wave of tariffs targeting the auto industry, China, South Korea, and Japan prepared for a trilateral trade summit in Seoul. It will be the second such meeting in as many weeks, following the March 22 foreign ministers’ gathering in Tokyo.

These back-to-back dialogues highlight Beijing’s efforts to exploit Washington’s strained alliances. Both Tokyo and Seoul host major U.S. military installations, but their export-driven economies are increasingly exposed to Trump’s protectionist agenda. In 2023, South Korea ran a $44.4 billion trade surplus with the U.S.; Japan’s was even larger, at $72.5 billion.

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has called for stronger regional economic cooperation. At the upcoming summit, the three nations are expected to coordinate a response to growing U.S. trade pressure.

Cooperation and Coercion

Beijing’s charm offensive is only one half of the strategy. Days after the Tokyo talks, Chinese coast guard vessels entered Japanese waters near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. It was the largest incursion to date and raised alarm in Tokyo.

This dual-track approach—soft power through diplomacy, hard power through provocation—is playing out across the Asia-Pacific. In January, South Korean media reported China had installed large floating platforms in contested waters.

When a Korean vessel approached, Beijing responded by deploying its coast guard. Yet, at the same time, it promotes regional infrastructure projects, signals détente with North Korea, and has hinted at lifting the ban on Korean pop culture.

Further south, China-Vietnam trade is surging. But last month, Beijing conducted live-fire drills in the Gulf of Tonkin. In Australia, a thaw in relations has seen Beijing ease restrictions on wine, meat, and shellfish. High-level defense talks resumed.

But when the Australian Navy patrolled near contested waters, China responded by encircling the country with PLAN vessels for weeks.

The message is clear: China seeks deeper regional ties—but only on its terms. Its endgame remains unchanged—dominance over the Asia-Pacific.