Black Sea Pact: Peace or Ploy?
Putin is treading water
Inside the Black Sea Agreement
The United States, Russia, and Ukraine have outlined a partial cease-fire centered on the Black Sea. If upheld, it could serve as a stepping stone toward a broader truce—but fragility remains a defining feature of these negotiations.
The deal was brokered after U.S. officials met separately with Ukrainian and Russian envoys in Jeddah. It includes a halt to hostilities in the Black Sea—an essential artery for global grain shipments—and commits all sides to limit attacks on energy infrastructure.
As part of the arrangement, the U.S. has pledged to help Russia re-enter the global market for agricultural goods and fertilizer. Washington has also agreed to assist with prisoner exchanges, the return of civilian detainees, and efforts to bring back Ukrainian children taken by Russia.
Russian Demands, Ukrainian Concerns
Russia has confirmed its participation but conditioned its compliance on two key demands: re-access to the SWIFT banking system and the lifting of sanctions on its food and fertilizer exports.
These conditions threaten the durability of the agreement. Fulfilling them would require European approval—yet the EU, excluded from this negotiation round, remains firm on its sanctions policy.
Europe is finalizing a €40 billion aid package for Ukraine and increasing its defense budget. Ending the war soon may not align with its current strategic calculus.
Ukraine's Defense Minister Rustem Umerov also endorsed the agreement, emphasizing safe passage for commercial vessels in the Black Sea. Still, he drew a red line: no Russian military ships outside the eastern portion of the sea. Umerov did not clarify whether a clear maritime boundary had been mutually defined.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, reacting to Russia’s added demands, accused Moscow of manipulating the terms and called Russia an “unreliable partner.”
That accusation is not without basis. A preliminary energy cease-fire was agreed to last week. Yet just hours after a call between Trump and Putin, Russian forces launched missile strikes on Ukrainian hospitals, energy facilities, and railway lines.
While the Black Sea Agreement marks a potential breakthrough, the road to peace remains precarious. Deep mistrust, strategic divergence, and contested interpretations will continue to test the limits of diplomacy.