Geopolitical Hotspots: Israel-Hezbollah War, Sinaloa Power Struggle

What are the latest geopolitical developments and implications for conflicts in the Middle East and Mexico?

It seems as though the digital printing presses can’t keep up with all of the geopolitical developments occurring around the world. From exploding pagers in the Middle East to pizza box-adorned corpses in Mexico from cartel power struggles, the world is increasingly becoming more strange and volatile.

But this is not entirely surprising. Historically speaking, geopolitical multipolarity has frequently resulted in cross-regional conflict as at-or-near-parity powers vie for the hegemonic mantle. You can read more about this in a piece I published in July: Geopolitical Multipolarity: The Trend of the Century.

Israel-Lebanon War

Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Islamist political and militant organization known as Hezbollah (“Party of God”), was killed in an Israeli airstrike on September 27, 2024. The strike targeted the headquarters in the southern suburbs of Beirut, an area frequently associated with the group's activities.

According to the Wall Street Journal, it is “the world’s most heavily armed nonstate paramilitary group”. The US designated Hezbollah as a terror organization in 1997.

Nasrallah's death followed a series of assassinations that targeted Hezbollah operatives by concealing explosives inside pager batteries. It is widely believed that Israel carried out the attacks, though Tel Aviv has refused to comment.

Nasrallah's death marks a major turning point for the group, which has lost a key figure who had led them for over 30 years. His killing has triggered both mourning and protests in Lebanon, with many blaming his involvement in the Gaza conflict for his demise.

Regionally, Nasrallah's death has sparked reactions from Hezbollah's allies, including Iran and Iraq, with both calling for retaliatory actions against Israel. Now a major question with regional implications needs to be answered: who will succeed him?

Image Source: NYT

Naim Qassem - Most Likely

Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary-General, is the most likely successor. As Nasrallah’s right-hand man for decades, he’s deeply entrenched in both the military and political arms of the organization.

His close ties to Iran, especially the IRGC, make him the safest choice for maintaining Tehran’s influence over Hezbollah. Qassem’s longstanding experience ensures stability and continuity, both within Hezbollah and its regional operations.

Hashim Safieddine

Hashim Safieddine, head of Hezbollah’s Executive Council, is another strong candidate. He controls the group’s financial and social infrastructure, and his family ties to Nasrallah add legitimacy.

However, his role is more administrative, and his military experience is limited compared to Qassem. While his close relationship with Iran strengthens his candidacy, his lack of direct military authority makes him less likely to lead a group so defined by its militant identity.

Talal Hamiyah

Talal Hamiyah, head of Hezbollah’s external security apparatus, could be a dark horse. His leadership in international operations, especially covert ones, gives him credibility in Hezbollah’s military ranks.

However, his secretive role limits his public profile and visibility within the broader organization. While militarily inclined, Hamiyah doesn’t have the same level of political influence or ties to Iran’s leadership as Qassem or Safieddine.

Ibrahim Amin al-Sayyed

Ibrahim Amin al-Sayyed, head of Hezbollah’s Political Council, is influential but focused primarily on Lebanon’s political landscape. His lack of military involvement and weaker ties to the IRGC make him a less viable candidate.

Hezbollah’s next leader must command respect within the military ranks, and al-Sayyed’s focus on politics weakens his chances.

Mohammad Raad – Least Unlikely

Mohammad Raad, head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, is highly respected in political circles but lacks military experience. His role in domestic politics distances him from the military command and operational strategy crucial to leading Hezbollah.

His influence is confined to the political sphere, which makes him an unlikely candidate for leadership in an organization that prioritizes militant capabilities.

What Happens Next?

Historically speaking, Hezbollah has responded to leadership assassinations by consolidating power, not fracturing. When Abbas al-Musawi was killed in 1992, Nasrallah stepped in and strengthened the group.

But Hezbollah has transformed since the 1990s, now leading a coalition of Iranian-backed groups known as the "Axis of Resistance." With an estimated tens of thousands of fighters and an advanced arsenal capable of striking anywhere in Israel, it serves as Tehran’s most important proxy. While Iran is Hezbollah’s main backer, it has generally avoided direct confrontation with Israel.

However, any escalation may compel Iran to act to preserve its credibility within the axis. Not responding could signal weakness to regional proxies. Yet, any direct Iranian involvement risks drawing in the US at a time when Tehran has shown an interest in reopening nuclear negotiations.

A potential outcome could be a coordinated response from the entire Axis of Resistance, raising the stakes of broader regional conflict. But even before that, Israel may launch a ground invasion into Lebanon.

Specifically, into the southern region. This area is where Hezbollah maintains its strongest presence, with entrenched military infrastructure, including underground tunnels, rocket launch sites, and command centers.

Southern Lebanon, particularly the area south of the Litani River, has long been Hezbollah’s operational heartland. From there, they can launch rocket and missile attacks into northern Israel.

The terrain also plays a strategic role. The rugged, hilly landscape of southern Lebanon provides natural cover for Hezbollah’s guerilla tactics, complicating Israel’s efforts to neutralize them through airpower alone.

A ground invasion would be aimed at dismantling this infrastructure, disrupting Hezbollah’s operations, and pushing its forces away from the Israeli border. A full-scale conflict, similar to the 2006 war with Israel, would likely devastate Lebanon, worsening its economic crisis and diminishing Hezbollah’s support among the population.

But looking across the world, the removal of another head of a major organization threatens to destabilize politics south of the US border…

Sinaloa Cartel Power Struggle

The recent wave of violence in Sinaloa—marked by the macabre display of bodies with sombreros and pizza slices stabbed onto them—stems directly from the power vacuum created by the arrest of Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada.

As co-founder of the Sinaloa Cartel, Zambada maintained a delicate balance of power within one of the world’s most powerful and violent criminal organizations, which dominates the global trade of fentanyl, methamphetamine, heroin, and cocaine. But they also hold tremendous political influence.

Over the years, the Sinaloa Cartel has embedded itself within various levels of the Mexican government, using a combination of bribery, intimidation, and violence. Its ability to corrupt officials—from local police officers to high-ranking politicians—has allowed the cartel to operate with impunity in many regions of Mexico.

This influence became particularly evident during incidents like the 2019 release of Ovidio Guzmán López, son of El Chapo, after cartel gunmen overwhelmed Mexican security forces in Culiacán. The event underscored the cartel’s capacity to directly challenge state authority, revealing how deeply it has compromised law enforcement and political institutions.

But now, Zambada's arrest has ignited fierce internal struggles within the cartel. The two primary factions at war are his loyalists—often called the Mayiza—and the Chapitos, the sons of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán.

Historically, Zambada’s discreet and calculated leadership allowed the cartel to avoid significant internal bloodshed. However, his capture has shattered that fragile equilibrium​.

The Chapitos have expanded aggressively, utilizing brute force to seize territories and key smuggling routes. Their focus on synthetic drugs, particularly fentanyl, has made them both wealthy and violent.

On the other side, Mayito Flaco, Zambada's son, has been forced to retaliate, forming alliances with powerful figures like José Gil Caro Quintero, nephew of the infamous Guadalajara Cartel leader Rafael Caro Quintero, and Isidro Meza Flores, head of the Meza Flores organization, known for his past rivalries with the Guzmán family.

These alliances are an attempt to push back against the Chapitos and reclaim control of the cartel, leveraging Caro Quintero's deep family ties in the drug trade and Meza Flores’ experience as a formidable leader of a violent faction.

As the conflict intensifies, Sinaloa's economy suffers, with schools shuttering, businesses closing, and curfews imposed. The fighting has spread beyond Sinaloa into neighboring states like Durango and Chihuahua, further destabilizing the region.

As a result, the federal government has sent 600 soldiers on to reinforce security in Sinaloa. It is more likely than not, that as warring factions vie for power, government involvement will increase. Specifically, more troops, a greater arsenal of weapons, and more frequent shootouts will raise the regional risk profile.

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As Hezbollah mourns the loss of its leader and the Sinaloa Cartel grapples with its internal collapse, both organizations stand at the edge of a precipice. Leaders of these organizations may fall, but the fires they leave behind have only just begun to rage.