History is Funny Like That

Take a look why.

A report by Bloomberg published in April 2023 showed recession probabilities worldwide of all major economies. There were two which stood out in particular, not only due to their diametrically opposite outlooks, but also intertwined history.

Specifically, the UK and India.

As the chart above shows, the UK - struggling with stagflationary-esque macroeconomic dynamics - has a 75% probability of entering into a recession this year. On the exact opposite end, is India, with a 0% probability.

In fact, the Indian economy is anticipated to grow over 6 percent in 2023, surpassing global GDP forecasts of 2.6%. Furthermore, the South Asian economic behemoth has overtaken the UK to become the world's fifth-largest economy, with a staggering value exceeding $3.50 trillion.

From a historical perspective, what we are seeing is a bygone imperial power being surpassed by one of its most prized - and plundered - colonies. In fact, the first Indian word to enter the English language was the Hindustani slang for plunder:

Loot.

But the irony and coy sense of history does not stop there. Even after relinquishing the hegemonic throne to the US, the UK remained the financial hub of Europe, and a key node in the global financial paradigm.

But now, with anemic growth and the consequences of Brexit, the UK is limping and looking to find inspirational models for restoring economic dynamism. And where they may look will add another layer of historical humor and irony.

The answer is the financial hub of Asia: Singapore.

Consistently hailed as an economic miracle, the former British colony may become a template for its former colonial ruler to emulate. Some would characterize this as a historical inversion, but I believe there is a deeper story here.

What we are seeing is the paragon of a tectonic shift in global geopolitics. Specifically, the re-emergence of Asia as a global, multi-polar superpower. The dichotomy of the UK’s global position in relation to two of its former colonial subjects is the epitome of this change.

Peter Frankopan, the author of The Silk Roads, was indeed correct when he wrote that the heart of the world is shifting back to the East.