Kazakhstan: The Lynchpin of Eurasian Geopolitics?

A Steppe by Steppe strategy

Kazakhstan occupies a pivotal role in Eurasian geopolitics, shaped by its control over trade routes, energy corridors, and membership in key international institutions.

Its position as a connector dates back centuries, with Silk Road routes passing through cities like Taraz and Otrar. That legacy is now being revived through infrastructure like the Khorgos dry port, the TITR, and expanded Caspian ports—modern expressions of an old function.

But unlike the past, its role today fuses logistics with diplomacy, balancing East and West through both rail and rhetoric. Its participation in the SCO, CSTO, EAEU, and WTO—alongside growing ties with Western powers—reflects a foreign policy grounded in balance over alignment.

This positioning gives Astana a rare ability to act as a stabilizer in a region defined by great-power rivalry.

Trade and Economic Leverage

Kazakhstan’s trade architecture reflects a deliberate strategy of diversification, with cross-cutting ties to major global powers. In 2023, China emerged as its largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching $31.5 billion—a 30% year-on-year surge fueled by expanding investment flows and accelerating e-commerce integration. Exports to China totaled $14.7 billion, while imports stood at $16.8 billion, underscoring a growing economic interdependence shaped by geography and industrial complementarity.

Europe remains another vital pillar. The European Union accounted for 37% of Kazakhstan’s total exports and 27.9% of its overall trade volume in 2023. Bilateral trade hit €42.4 billion, a 5.6% increase from 2022, while EU investment into the country reached €54.8 billion in 2022—marking a 5.5% uptick over the prior year. These figures reflect sustained Western interest in Kazakhstan’s extractive and logistical infrastructure.

Russia, bound to Kazakhstan through their shared membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), continues to play a significant—though increasingly attenuated—role. Trade growth with Moscow has moderated as Astana seeks to recalibrate its economic exposure. Government initiatives such as QazTrade have been deployed to support exporters’ penetration into alternative markets, notably Germany, Turkey, and the UAE.

The United States, while a smaller trade partner by volume, plays a strategic role. In 2024, bilateral goods trade reached $3.4 billion, with Kazakhstani exports at $1.1 billion and imports at $2.3 billion—much of it centered on hydrocarbons. Though modest in scale, this commercial link represents a broader push toward supply chain diversification and geopolitical balance. Reducing overdependence on any single bloc enhances Kazakhstan’s bargaining power across overlapping spheres of influence.

Kazakhstan: A Strategic Bridge Between East and West

Kazakhstan’s geographic position makes it a keystone of transcontinental trade in the 21st century, particularly through its integration into China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). At the core of this role is the Khorgos dry port, a flagship joint venture with Beijing and the world’s largest inland logistics hub. It enables seamless freight transfer between Chinese and Russian-gauge rail systems, effectively anchoring the overland corridor linking Asia to Europe.

This connectivity is reinforced by strategic infrastructure: the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), the Western Europe–Western China corridor, and expanded Caspian port facilities at Aktau and Kuryk. Together, they provide overland and maritime options for trans-Eurasian transit, enhancing Kazakhstan’s value as a logistical hinge in a region increasingly defined by supply chain security.

But the country’s role as a bridge is not limited to infrastructure—it is equally diplomatic. Kazakhstan’s membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) integrates it with Eastern security and political frameworks.

Simultaneously, deepening partnerships with the European Union and the United States cultivate Western economic and political linkages. This dual orientation allows Astana to hedge against geopolitical bifurcation while capitalizing on its geographic endowment.

As Russia pivots east and China expands westward through BRI, Kazakhstan’s centrality to land-based trade becomes more pronounced. In an era of shifting great power alignments, its function as a stable transit state gives it leverage that few in the region can match.