Latest on Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire

For now, the champagne can stay on the shelf.

Two weeks after Trump and Zelensky’s televised presidential meltdown in Washington, US-Ukrainian relations are showing careful steps towards recovery.

After a successful meeting in Jeddah, the American and Ukrainian delegations agreed to an immediate 30-day ceasefire deal. In a joint statement, the United States declared it would reinstate intelligence sharing and military aid with Ukraine, and both countries agreed to revive the previously failed critical mineral deal.

President Trump has since invited Zelensky to the White House for a do-over meeting. Different from the earlier proposed French plan, this ceasefire deal would include a full interim pause, extending to missiles, drones, and all military activity on the front line.

The deal would allow for an opportunity for further peace talks to end the war. But Russia will have to agree first. Today, President Putin’s special advisor Yuri Ushakov appears to have already shut the plan down, stating that the ceasefire would do nothing for Russia while providing adversary Ukraine with a temporary breather.

US special envoy Wittkof has traveled to Moscow to further negotiate with Putin’s team but is it to be expected that Russia will drive a hard bargain and will try rake in significant concessions.

Putin is likely to regurgitate old demands: barring Ukraine from NATO membership, no foreign (European nor American) troops stationed in Ukraine, and international recognition that its conquered territories are now Russian.

Meanwhile Trump has threatened to financially devastate Russia if Putin refuses the deal. The conflict has shaped into a war of attrition, with Russia making small and costly, but steady gains. This morning Defense Minister Valery Gerasimov shared that his forces had reconquered 86% of the territory Ukraine had captured in the Kremlin’s Kursk region.

A move that Ukraine likely wished to use as a bargaining chip. Although Kyiv has not commented on these claims, the Institute for the Study of War has confirmed the Russian gains through verified open-source material. However, this is not to say that Russia is not experiencing hardship.

Battlefield losses are immense, with Ukrainian claims of over 1000 casualties a day. Russia struggles to recruit additional troops as President Putin refuses to implement large-scale mobilization. Pressure is also mounting on the Russian economy, with growth dwindling and inflation reaching a massive 9.5% in 2024.

This year, military spending has risen to 41% of the total budget, labor shortages have spiked, and interest rates have risen sharply. Diesel exports to markets in Africa (-46%), Brazil (-41%), and Turkey (-12%) have each dropped significantly, and Gazprom has lost billions after losing key European buyers.

While these economic challenges may not immediately force Putin to take significant steps towards a peace deal, their long-term effects will certainly be felt in the Kremlin.