Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks Continue to Breakdown
Drums, drums, in the deep
While U.S. negotiators gear up for a promising second round of Iranian nuclear talks, the Kremlin-Whitehouse talks on the Ukraine war appear to have stalled.
Today, Russia shared it might resume its attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure on Thursday. According to the Kremlin, the 30-day energy ceasefire is up tomorrow, while Ukraine claimed the agreement didn’t immediately start and should be good for another week.
According to the Kremlin, President Putin will make a final decision on the matter in the coming days. When announced in March, the partial ceasefire was touted as a path towards a wider cessation of fighting, but such promises have not materialized yet. The ceasefire agreement never included a designated observer, and both sides have repeatedly accused one another of violating the terms.
Witkoff recently met with Russia’s Vladimir Putin in Saint Petersburg and is reported to have advised President Trump that the fastest way towards a full ceasefire is to support the Russian annexation claims of Ukraine’s four eastern oblasts: Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia.
Trump’s special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, retired lieutenant general Keith Kellog, disagrees with this strategy, as he believes that Ukraine will never unilaterally grant total ownership of entire territories to Moscow.
Days after a Russian missile strike killed at least 35 on a Palm Sunday gathering in the city of Sumy, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy Witkoff are now reported to travel to Paris to discuss ending the war.
While the Trump administration clearly stated that the U.S. will not deploy troops on Ukrainian soil, France has played a pivotal role in organizing European-led security guarantees for Kyiv in case a future settlement is reached.
However, according to undisclosed European officials, only six European nations have agreed to participate in a so-called reassurance force. These being France, the United Kingdom, the three Baltic nations, and one more undisclosed country.
According to UK defense secretary John Healy, the force would primarily be tasked with strengthening the Ukrainian side rather than serving as a traditional peacekeeping force. However, it is still unclear what the exact mandate and command structure of such a force would be.
This has caused doubts among some European nations, like the Dutch, who want clear mission details before committing. Others like Poland, while known for its firm anti- Russian stance, have stated they need to focus on strengthening their own borders in case the conflict further escalates.
If a ceasefire is reached, Ukraine would benefit from a deterrence force but most European states will want to avoid a direct confrontation.