Syria’s Fragile Unity: Kurdish Alliance Tests Post-War Stability
The Kurdish gamble: unity or submission?
This week, the Syrian government signed a breakthrough agreement with the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), marking a significant step towards the forging of a new Syria.
The agreement will usher in three key developments: an immediate ceasefire between the Kurdish forces and the Syrian military, the full integration of Kurdish forces into the Syrian military, and the Sharaa government gaining authority over northeastern Syria, which previously fell under Kurdish SDF control.
This will the Syrian government authority over border passings with neighbors Turkey and Iraq, as well as critical oil fields and logistically relevant airports. In return, the Kurds will gain a stake in the new Syria and retain some degrees of autonomy.
For example, they will be able to maintain their own language and manage their own educational systems, a stark contrast to the policies of ousted dictator Bashar al-Assad, who repressed any semblance of Kurdish identity.
As the Kurdish-led forces formed the largest obstacle to fully unifying the country, the agreement will further cement the legitimacy of the interim government founded by the now-disbanded Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militant group.
The integration of SDF into the Syrian military also aligns with a period of uncertainty surrounding Washington’s support for the Kurdish militia. The U.S. has long been a crucial backer of SDF and appears to lose influence with the new agreement.
On the other hand, Turkey, which has been an early supporter of HTS and its leader Sharaa, stands to benefit from the developments. Ankara is wary of its own domestic Kurdish separatist movement and has long sought to limit the power of SDF.
While Syria is unifying, it is also experiencing instability as a wave of sectarian violence has shaken the country. Government forces have been deployed to the coastal cities of Latakia, Banias, Tartous, and Jableh to purge what they deem to be remnants of the former regime.
Pro-Assad insurgents have staged attacks against military personnel, including an ambush on March 6 that killed 16 soldiers. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), over 1300 people have been killed in the most recent clashes, most of whom were civilians.
The coastal region is home to the Alawite religious minority group, which former dictator Bashar al-Assad himself belonged to. The agreement between the Syrian government and the Kurdish SDF marks a decisive turning point in Syria’s turbulent post-war landscape.
While Damascus consolidates authority over vital economic and strategic assets, the Kurds secure a fragile but tangible stake in the country’s future, albeit at the cost of full autonomy. Yet, even as Syria edges toward unification, sectarian tensions threaten to unravel fragile gains, a stark reminder that stability.