Turkey-Israel Tensions Over Syria are Growing
Eye on the prize: truce or dare?
Serious talks over Syria
The ousting of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad has reshuffled the pieces of the Middle Eastern theater. While Russia and Iran have lost leverage in the region through Assad’s departure, Ankara and Jerusalem have gained considerable influence.
Turkey, as a long-time supporter of former rebel leader and new Syrian president al- Sharaa, enjoys a strong relationship with Damascus’ transitional government. This has led to more potent trade relations and the absorption of Kurdish militias—historical enemies of Erdogan’s Turkey—into the new Syrian military.
Israel has also jumped into the power vacuum left by the fall of Assad. In late 2024, it invaded southwestern Syria and occupied a territory of several hundred square miles adjacent to the Golan Heights. The IDF carried out a bombing campaign on Syrian logistics, military assets, and chemical weapon stockpiles. According to Jerusalem, these strikes were carried out to ‘demilitarize’ southern Syria and ensure Assad’s holdover arms could not be used against Israel in the future.
A War of Words
Since 1949, when Turkey became one of the first Muslim nations to establish diplomatic ties with Jerusalem, the two states have maintained intelligence, trade, and military ties. However, this relationship is now under severe pressure.
From the beginning of the 2023 war in Gaza, Turkey’s Erdogan and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu have exchanged increasingly inflammatory barbs.
Both countries’ increased assertiveness in Syria has further deteriorated this relationship. Israel has accused Turkey of seeking to establish a “neo-Ottoman state” in Syria, referencing the 400-year period of Ottoman rule over Damascus. This comment aligns with Israel’s fear of an evolving “Sunni crescent,” a potential scenario that would see Turkey, Syria, and Egypt align against Israel.
Turkey, on the other hand, has labeled Israel’s “aggressive and expansionist policies” as the “greatest threat to the security of our region”.
Potential Escalations
After news broke that Turkey was eyeing the establishment of a military base in the Syrian desert city of Palmyra, Israel stated it would consider such a move a ‘red line.’
Additionally, a recent report by the Nagel Commission (led by acting Israeli security adviser Jacob Nagel) on Israel’s defense budget warned Israel’s government against a potential war with Turkey.
Although the risk of escalating proxy conflicts increases, both regional powers are not interested in a direct confrontation. On Wednesday, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced that Turkish and Israeli envoys have been meeting in Azerbaijan to deconflict their presence in Syria.
These talks aim to establish technical mechanisms to avoid miscommunications and unintended military confrontations. In the past, Moscow and Israel had established a similar agreement in Syria.
Jerusalem and Ankara will continue to expand their influence in the region. Although this means they will not be able to eliminate all tensions, both sport formidable military forces and understand the need to reduce tensions to avoid a devastating war.