Turkey’s Power Play in Syria: Expanding Influence Post-Assad

With Assad out of the picture, Turkey is capitalizing on the chaos—leveraging militant groups, energy deals, and geopolitics to reshape Syria to its advantage.

Turkey is capitalizing on Assad’s fall to expand its influence, secure economic gains, and dominate the region while balancing NATO and Russia.

Anatolia has always been a crossroads of empires, a launchpad for conquest, a buffer against foreign incursions. The modern Turkish state—assertive, pragmatic, and acutely aware of history—seeks to reclaim its role.

In Syria, Ankara has played its hand carefully, oscillating between military intervention, economic leverage, and backchannel diplomacy. The fall of Assad’s regime in late 2024 opened new possibilities, and Turkey moved quickly to capitalize.

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham as partner

Turkey’s playbook in Syria has always been one of pragmatism—shifting alliances to serve its strategic interests. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), once a liability for Ankara due to its radical roots and unruly leadership, has now become an asset.

With Assad’s grip on power shattered, Turkey sees an opening: a stable, HTS-controlled Syria that aligns with its interests, even if it can’t fully dictate the terms.

The pivot was swift. Turkey re-established its embassy in Damascus and dispatched its intelligence chief to open channels with HTS leadership. Eager for legitimacy, HTS embraced Ankara’s outreach.

Turkey, in turn, facilitated Western engagement, endorsing HTS’s rhetorical shift toward “moderation.” The diplomatic thaw culminated in then-leader and now interim Syrian president al-Sharaa declaring a new era of “strategic relations” with Turkey.

Within months, commercial flights resumed between the two countries for the first time in 13 years, and negotiations on free trade agreements and customs tariffs were already underway.

For Turkey, the benefits are immediate. The most pressing concern: the refugee crisis. With nearly 3 million Syrians inside its borders and rising domestic discontent over their presence, Ankara is under pressure to act.

Economic hardship has amplified public resentment, and Erdogan campaigned on addressing the issue. A functional, HTS-led Syria offers a pathway for large-scale repatriations, relieving Turkey of a major political and economic burden.

Syria’s Economic Shift and Turkish Leverage

Syria’s new government wasted no time pivoting away from state-controlled economics, embracing a free-market model designed to lure investment. For Turkey, whose ties to HTS have deepened, this shift isn’t just an ideological rebranding—it’s an opportunity.

The most immediate prize is Syria’s natural wealth. Pre-war estimates put the country’s reserves at 2.5 billion barrels of oil, 241 billion cubic meters of natural gas, and 1.8 billion tons of phosphate—among the world’s top ten.

A stable, HTS-aligned Syria offers Ankara something it has long sought: an alternative to Russian and Iranian energy dependence. In a region where supply chains are as much about leverage as logistics, Turkey sees the potential to redraw its energy map on more favorable terms.

The real prize for Turkey isn’t just Syria’s resources—it’s its role as a conduit for Qatari energy; enter the long-dormant Turkey-Qatar pipeline.

Originally conceived as a $10 billion project to transport liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar’s massive South Pars/North Dome field through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria before reaching Turkey, the pipeline was blocked by Assad’s government to protect Moscow’s interests.

Here is a map of what that looks like and what the strategic implications are for Turkey: