US-Iran Tensions Rise as Tehran is Backed into a Corner

Uranium cocktail enriched, not stirred.

Tehran’s nuclear cocktail

The United States and Iran are set to engage in nuclear discussions on Saturday. Although President Trump announced that direct talks would take place in Oman, the Iranians said they were open to negotiations but that there would only be indirect discussions through intermediaries.

Trump has indicated he prefers a diplomatic deal but hinted at employing military force if Tehran fails to reach an accord with the U.S. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who visited Washington DC on Monday as the announcement was made, is a proponent of military action against Iran.

According to a February report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran currently possesses 274.8 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60%, meaning it is only a short, technical step away from 90% weapons-grade levels.

Its overall stockpile of enriched uranium currently sits at 8,294.4 kilograms. Although Tehran maintains its nuclear program is intended for peaceful purposes only, Iran is the only non-nuclear weapons state owning such amounts of nuclear material.

A Precarious Position

To say Iran is on the back foot would be an understatement. The Islamic Republic has experienced a significant loss of influence in the Middle East where its proxy network has largely been dismantled.

In their war with Israel, the Hamas and Hezbollah militant groups have both been decimated throughout Gaza and Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen, while still standing, have been subjected to heavy U.S. bombardments. In Syria, Tehran perhaps experienced its largest defeat.

For years, Bashar al-Assad’s Ba’ath regime in Damascus provided Iran with its only state ally in the region. However, with Assad’s ousting, Tehran will have to deal with a new Syria ruled by Assad’s former Sunni adversaries while simultaneously losing essential supply lines to aid Hamas and Hezbollah in the future.

On Monday, Tehran’s proxy network received another blow as several of its allied Shia militant groups in neighboring Iraq announced they would lay down their arms to avert direct airstrikes from the United States. Multiple commanders of local militias reported they received repeated private warnings from U.S. officials.

Budding Escalations

According to the Institute for the Study of War, senior Iranian military officials seem to be preparing for possible Israeli or American strikes against the country.

Feeling the pressure, Iran has threatened to attack U.S allies in the region if they support or enable a strike on the country. Tehran specifically warned Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, and Bahrain, which all host U.S. military bases.

However, despite Iran’s efforts, a military escalation may be closer than ever. As it feels threatened during a period of high tension with Israel, Tehran is unlikely to fully part with its nuclear capabilities, which would make it more vulnerable in the long term.

At the same time, reports from senior Israeli sources state that Netanyahu and Trump have discussed air strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities if negotiations fail. As 2025 progresses, Iran remains in difficult waters.

See also: Could Iran's Regime Fall by 2029?

The country not only faces domestic political unrest and a harsh economic situation but is also subjected to substantial external military threats from rival Israel and an increasingly adversarial United States.